new delhi, May 29
India is likely to receive below-normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season this year, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday, while also warning that several states could experience a higher-than-usual number of heatwave days in the coming months. The forecast is significant as the June-September monsoon remains crucial for agriculture, water reservoirs and the broader economy. While parts of the country are expected to receive normal rainfall, large sections of central, northwestern and southern India could see a rainfall deficit during the season.Addressing a press conference, IMD Director General of Meteorology Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the country is expected to receive rainfall amounting to 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) during the four-month monsoon season.
“We are providing the second-stage update for the June-September monsoon. Quantitatively, we expect 90 per cent of the LPA, with a 4 per cent model error,” Mohapatra said.
According to the IMD’s regional outlook, Northeast India is likely to record normal rainfall, ranging between 94 per cent and 106 per cent of the LPA. However, Central India, Northwest India, South Peninsular India and the Monsoon Core Zone are expected to receive below-normal rainfall.
What is the IMD’s rainfall forecast for June?
The weather office said rainfall activity in June is likely to remain subdued across much of the country. Monthly rainfall is projected to stay below 92 per cent of the LPA in most regions.
Some pockets of Northwest India, Northeast India and parts of the southern peninsula could nevertheless receive normal to above-normal rainfall during the month.
Which states may face more heatwave days?
Alongside the rainfall forecast, the IMD indicated that temperatures are likely to remain above normal in many parts of the country through June.
“Maximum temperatures will be above normal for most of the country, except for parts of Central, Northwest and East India. Minimum temperatures are also expected to remain mostly above normal,” Mohapatra said.
The agency expects an above-normal number of heatwave days over Haryana, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Punjab, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh. Some areas of Maharashtra, Telangana and Tamil Nadu could also witness increased heatwave activity.
El Nino chances rise as monsoon season approaches
The IMD said neutral ENSO conditions over the Pacific Ocean are gradually moving towards El Nino conditions.
According to Mohapatra, the probability of El Nino developing is estimated at 82 per cent in June and is expected to cross 90 per cent during July and August. At the same time, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are likely to continue through the monsoon season.
The weather agency also noted that rainfall during May has so far remained favourable. National rainfall for the month was four per cent above normal, while cumulative seasonal rainfall up to May 27 stood one per cent above normal.
Meanwhile, the southwest monsoon has continued its advance after reaching the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on May 16, four days ahead of schedule. It has since progressed into the South Arabian Sea and the Lakshadweep region.
The IMD said conditions remain favourable for the monsoon’s arrival over Kerala and parts of the Northeast within the next week.
Separately, the weather department on Thursday forecast relief from intense heat across Northwest India over the next three days due to western disturbances and easterly winds. Thunderstorms, gusty winds and isolated hailstorm activity are also expected in several regions.
