Within days of its Defence Minister meeting Rajnath Singh, China violates talks spirit by pushing troops in Ladakh, again
That the current talks diplomacy on Ladakh is just a meaningless charade was more than evident from the Chinese mouthpiece, Global Times, which warned India against doing “a handstand on the edge of a cliff” or underestimate Beijing’s hitback capabilities. This came soon after its troops fired in the air unprovoked at Pangong Tso, claiming the push came from India. It looks alarming because this comes days within Defence Minister Rajnath Singh’s meeting with his counterpart Wei Fenghe in Moscow on the sidelines of this year’s edition of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). Alarming because China had initiated that meeting. But used to tradeoffs on the talks table following intimidation and salami-slicing on the ground, it had not bargained for India’s toughness on status quo ante. Or that it would resolutely hold ground. And though India has emphasised that it would like to settle the border issue within the framework of diplomacy and dialogue, the fact that Chinese troops are still stationed within our artillery range in the south of Pangong Tso should remind us that it will never back down on that count. And till we address the historicity of a fluidic Line of Actual Control (LAC) and insist that perceptional differences over it be replaced by marking it on the ground, we will be back to square one. Till we establish the centrality of the boundary issue in negotiations, the eyeball-to-eyeball conflicts will only escalate. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar was right when he indicated that talks would be needed at a deeper level of political engagement but it is unlikely that China would bend in those discussions, too. Unless it gets something in return. As the Doklam standoff near the trijunction with Bhutan has showed us, the summit between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping ensured just a temporary withdrawal of troops and within a year, the Chinese ramped up their positions, encircling claim lines so tightly that they could heave down militarily. And while Beijing realises that it needs to keep a transactional engagement with India to protect its strategic interests, it will never reconcile to losing the strategic advantage in Ladakh because of the DSDBO road that allows India troop parity in this sector. Besides, China wouldn’t want the Indian shadow over the Karakoram, particularly between Gilgit-Baltistan in the west (Pakistan-occupied Kashmir), where China is heavily invested in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and Aksai Chin in the east. It certainly doesn’t want Indian troops in the higher ridges and won’t let go of the spurs it has wrested post-Galwan. Besides, it sees India as the proxy of the US and will continue to be offensive on that count. The combined US-India strategy to counter it along maritime routes and halt its digital monopoly by denying technological access in both markets has already aggravated its anxieties. And while President Donald Trump may not be overtly confrontational with China given trade dependencies and instead try to claim credit as a mediator between the two Asian powers, India has to be prepared to bear the brunt of Xi’s belligerence and hegemonic ambitions.
In fact, China intends to stretch India along the Himalayan border as just a day before, it announced how it never recognised the “so-called ‘Arunachal Pradesh’”, and reiterated its claim it was actually “south Tibet” and part of its territory. The statement came in response to the Indian Army’s question asking if five civilians who went missing from Arunachal Pradesh days ago were in the custody of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). This “abduction” could lead to a potential flashpoint and over time there could be more of maximalist rhetoric and territorial imperialism. China has been consistent in its expansionist designs in the northeastern State, issuing stapled visas to its residents in 2009, implying they were not Indian citizens. Incursions have been consistent over the decade with some even claiming it had built temporary bridges. And these, too, it has justified with the old argument of “a differing perception of the alignment of the LAC, as in many other areas.” In March 2019, China destroyed 30,000 world maps printed for export for not mentioning Arunachal Pradesh and Taiwan as part of Chinese territory. And in April 2020, Beijing’s Sky Map showed parts of Arunachal Pradesh within its international borders. India has got to be more than just vigilant, it now needs to be proactive. It is watching the Malacca Straits, a key strategic and economic transit corridor for China, it has upgraded the Quad initiative with US and Japan, and begun talking to Central Asian and southeast Asian nations debt-trapped by China’s Belt and Road Initiative. But apart from these, it should now drive a hard bargain with China over an Asian split costing the latter its greater ambitions vis-à-vis the US. And yes, we should get vocal about joining the chorus on Tibet.
