NEW DELHI, OCT 28
The two-time World Test Championship runners up were looking pretty for a place at next year’s final, until the consecutive slip-ups at home against New Zealand has left the door open for opposition sides.
While Rohit Sharma’s team still maintains a narrow lead at the top of the standings, another loss in the third Test against the Black Caps will see them travel to Australia next month needing to win at least four of their matches Down Under to ensure qualification. Regardless of what happens in Mumbai against New Zealand, the five-Test series against Australia at the end of the year will be pivotal for India and their chances of reaching a third straight World Test Championship final. Similarly, the reigning WTC champions Australia are on track for a second consecutive appearance in the final, but Pat Cummins’ side will likely still need to win a minimum of four of their remaining seven Tests if they are to defend the title they won in 2023. The one advantage that the Kangaroos have over India is they have two Tests in Sri Lanka next year, meaning they could theoretically draw 2-2 with Rohit Sharma’s side and stay in contention for a place in the final ahead of that trip to Asia.
Having conceded two series in India’s previous two tours Down Under in 2018 and 2021, Australia will be keen to arrest their poor recent record at home and hope to regain the Border-Gavaskar Trophy for the first time in over a decade. Meanwhile, Sri Lanka have bolstered their chances after a head-turning victory over England in the third Test in England, and a 2-0 whitewash of New Zealand at home. The Islanders will need three more wins from their remaining four Tests for a maiden WTC final appearance.
Having said that, their task will be difficult, with two Tests scheduled in South Africa at the end of November and a further two-match series at home against reigning champions Australia in 2025. If Sri Lanka can pinch one victory in South Africa, it could lead to a grandstand finish on home soil with the top two spots potentially still to be decided in the final series of the cycle.
New Zealand, who arrived in India at the sixth spot in the WTC rankings, have boosted themselves to the No.4 spot after sealing a first-ever series in India. The inaugural WTC title holders still have plenty of work to do if they are to finish in the top two places on the standings.
The Black Caps will likely need to win all four of their remaining Tests to make it through to the final, meaning they will have to complete series sweeps over India (by winning the Mumbai Test) and England at home if they are to do so. For fifth-placed South Africa, a first win in the sub-continent in more than 10 years has given them hope of reaching next year’s WTC final, but they will likely need to replicate that success in the second Test against Bangladesh and then win three of their four contests on home soil at the end of the year.
The two-match home series against Sri Lanka at the end of November will be the crucial one for the Proteas, as a series-sweep there will boost their own chances of reaching the final and put an end to any hopes the island nation had of reaching the title decider. South Africa are a genuine threat to the top teams on the standings given they have four more matches at home, but before that, the focus will be on winning the second Test in Bangladesh. England’s prospects of reaching the WTC final were seriously dented after consecutive losses in Pakistan, leaving Ben Stokes’ side with just three more Tests remaining this cycle.
They travel to New Zealand for a three-match series against the Black Caps and will be looking to finish the cycle on a positive note with a series victory away from home.
Similarly, Pakistan, despite recording back-to-back Tests at home, remain out of contention of reaching the final with a total of six teams ahead of them on the standings.
While Pakistan could still win their remaining four Tests and finish with a percentage as high as 52.38 per cent, this is unlikely to be enough to finish in the top two places on the standings.
The road is also closed for the eighth and ninth placed Bangladesh, West Indies although both teams have a few more Tests in the ongoing cycle. While Bangladesh are set to take on the Proteas in the second home Test, before the two-Test tour of West Indies at the end of November, the Caribbean side will fly to Pakistan for another two-match series early in the new year to round out their campaign.
