A needless controversy over the Rafale deal stalled major defence acquisition and development projects. But India has to start building and buying new equipment for strategic depth
India finds itself in a unique position compared to most other countries in the world. Unlike the United States (US), it does not have two gigantic moats protecting it from enemies and its rivals share thousands of kilometres of land borders, including a disputed territory, a lasting legacy of the amorphous borders from the colonial era. One side we have Pakistan, a state whose raison d’etre is to constantly proclaim India as an existential threat to the militarised state. On the other side, we have China, a nation with which we share a lot, but one that has taken immense strides over the past three decades and whose economic success is leading its President Xi Jinping to advocate a policy of territorial expansion. This is evident through island-building in the South China Sea and even through the controversial belt and Road Initiative, which is at many levels just a modern-day version of Imperial Japan’s Greater East-Asia Co-Prosperity sphere. To compound matters, Pakistan is quickly becoming China’s first economic colony, even though projects in Sri Lanka and the Maldives have allowed China to take over assets in those nations and encircle us.
It is unlikely that China and India will have a repeat of the 1962 war in the immediate future, but it seems inevitable that China and the US will have some sort of confrontation within the next decade and India will play a role. So China’s strategy appears to be containing India as a potential risk, not just by propping up Pakistan’s military through hardware but indirectly supporting Pakistan-based terror organisations. India has been wary of these efforts from China, being the loudest and most vocal critic of the quasi-imperialist Belt and Road Initiative as well as focussing more defensive efforts towards its eastern border and making a belated effort to modernise its military.
But despite India’s record-busting military budgets of the past few years, it has not quite kept pace with China’s. Its poor economic growth over the past few years is the biggest culprit and has choked investments in defence production lines. India just does not have the economic capacity to match up to China and has been stymied by poor economic policy-making and inefficient governance for years. This has led to hugely delayed defence acquisition deals. In every aspect of military capability, India is falling dangerously behind China.
Take a look at the latest programme to build six new submarines under Project 75-I. The initial proposal for 24 submarines under Project 75 was initially made in 1997, and even though things were hustled after the 1999 Kargil conflict, the first six submarines of a smaller overall project are coming on line now. Most of India’s submarines are 30-year old plus Kilo class ones and their age is showing, with one of the Sindhurakshaks, as they are called, falling prey to old age when it caught fire in Mumbai. Even though India has inducted the Arihant as a nuclear attack submarine and has leased an Akula-class submarine from Russia, China’s navy has built a fleet of attack submarines as well as several ballistic missile submarines with which they can contain India.
China has dramatically built up its surface fleet as well. India has only 11 destroyers in commission, with four of the Vishakhapatnam-class under construction. However, these new ships will replace the old Rajput-class ships. China, on the other hand, has 36 destroyers, all commissioned after 1999 and several new ships that are entering service in the next 18-24 months. Our eastern neighbour has truly turned its industrial might in a massive ship-building programme and despite not being quite as advanced or capable as the American Navy with its giant super carriers, it is clearly the second-most powerful Navy in the world.
Similar advancements in China’s aerial and land forces besides manufacturing capacities have left India far behind, particularly with regard to India’s limited development capabilities. We do not even have a proper military-industrial complex. Poor planning, a socialist mindset towards protecting defence public sector units and corruption in defence deals have meant that India remains one of the world’s largest importers of military hardware.
The second-term Modi Government has an opportunity to change that as there is an overwhelming understanding among the public that India is falling behind on the military front. That is one of the major reasons why Rahul Gandhi’s “Rafale Scam” line bombed during the elections. There needs to be a major push towards much more industrial abilities within India, and as the space programme has proven, we can work towards advanced developmental abilities. For example, much like other advanced military nations, India has proven anti-satellite capabilities and is developing a hypersonic missile, both of which are useful systems in a potential conflict with a far more militarily advanced power. But more resources have to be poured into research and development of military abilities. A positive fallout of the failure of the Rafale scam to resonate with voters is that more private sector participation in military hardware and software development should now become the norm. The Indian private sector must contribute more towards India’s military development.
There needs to be far more thought and money put into building up India’s military preparedness. Even if a war is not around the corner, we should not fall back decades behind China and remain a importer of military hardware. India’s chest-thumping nationalism does not have much teeth to back it up. Going forward, India will need those teeth to extend its power and protect its economic and diplomatic interests. Even India’s friendlier neighbours are attracted by the lucre of China and a weak Indian military ensures they are not wary of us. There will be those who protest against rising militarism in India and the costs associated with it, but India does not have a choice but build up its military.
