Dr Nandkumar M Kamat
The road to victory in the 2027 assembly elections would not be easy for the opposition because the traditional Congress votes are split
The results of the polls to elect the new legislative assemblies in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Telangana have specific messages for the politicians in the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Goa and the hopelessly splintered opposition parties. It is a fact of history that since the 1984 assembly elections the BJP in Goa could never reach a 40 per cent share of the total votes polled. It has always benefitted from a protective and benevolent government at the Centre. Now, the Goa BJP should be assured that the 2024 polls for Lok Sabha may hold no surprises, and at least till 2029, it may expect a very supportive government at the Centre. This would also help it to tame and keep under control the ambitious defectors who dumped Congress to join it in the name of the “development of
their constituencies.”
Smaller regional parties like the Goa Forward Party (GFP) needs to do cautious strategic thinking now because its supremo would need to check whether he has sufficient resources, energy, and stamina to continue in the opposition without being given any respectful space or position or lend support to BJP government from outside or even accept their offer to join the cabinet in a forthcoming inevitable cabinet reshuffle. The Congress high command is unwilling to accommodate Vijai Sardesai and his party with the honour and respect he deserves because they still feel betrayed by his support to ex-CM late Manohar Parrikar to form a hybrid government in March 2017. But there may be a sizable section within the Goa BJP that is prepared to accommodate a good legislator like Vijai Sardesai, who they feel is wasting his time, talent, energy, and oratory on the opposition benches in a small state like Goa, where almost everybody is known to everybody.
It would be a major tactical blunder by the Congress party if it fails to get a merger of GFP on very honourable terms within a month and much before the Lok Sabha election in May 2024. However, even after such a hypothetical merger, the road to victory in the 2027 assembly elections would not be easy for the opposition because the traditional Congress votes are split between NCP, AITMC, AAP, and the new players, the RGP, and the party rebels. Even pre-election tactical seat adjustments in 2027 would not guarantee that post-poll defections won’t materialise, favouring the BJP because of a palpable trust deficit between the local opposition party leaders. They should have formed a common front after the March 2022 assembly election results and could have agreed to a shadow cabinet to distribute responsibilities. GFP supremo, ex-deputy CM, and Fatorda MLA Vijai Sardesai should have been appointed as the shadow Chief minister of such a cabinet on merit. But such simple tactical understanding between anti-BJP opposition is lacking. On the other hand, by aligning with MGP after the 2022 verdict, the BJP has wisely increased its overall vote share.
For the politically and administratively far more experienced Congress party of Goa, the Telangana model of election campaigning and victory is a readymade template to be followed in a scaled-down manner.
Telangana had claimed development by falling into a vicious public debt trap. The BJP rule in Goa would complete 15 years in 2027 when the public debt is projected to cross Rs 50,000 crore from the present level of Rs 35,000 crore because the present government is splurging money on unproductive schemes and events while ignoring huge revenue leakages. Ex-CM Manohar Parrikar was his own advisor and never depended on getting entangled in a labyrinth of MOUs and intrusive private players and advisors influencing and impacting the government.
The Pramod Sawant-led government cannot survive without an army of hired advisors, whose duties are never made public, and the politically inexperienced watchdogs placed at the service of every cabinet minister by the RSS. The stamp of these hired advisors and RSS watchdogs is seen in most government decisions, schemes, events, speeches, and announcements of the Chief Minister. There is nothing wrong with this because RSS has never shied away from the fact that BJP is its political organ. The BJP has never distanced itself from RSS; however, ex-CM Manohar Parrikar was an exception. The RSS had invested a lot in him and his career, and he didn’t disappoint as the CM of Goa or defense minister of India.
The opposition has failed to question the role of some extra-constitutional authorities steering the governance on a day-to-day basis. As compared to any other Chief Minister in India, the CM of Goa is now handling a record number of portfolios and unless he unloads several of these in a new cabinet reshuffle, he would find the administration spread out very thin in the process and Chief Minister’s Office getting hopelessly overloaded. With one-third of the period of the present assembly getting over, for the Goa BJP, the cabinet, and the CM, the most critical period would be the financial years 2024-5 and 2025-6.
The XVIth finance commission would be breathing down its neck within a year of its notification to be issued soon. The Sawant government is ill-prepared to face the XVIth
finance commission.
As an outcome of the recent emphatic victories of the BJP in three important states, hectic political developments favouring the ruling party and the government are expected. Politically ambitious candidates from a divided and demotivated opposition are likely to gravitate towards the Goa BJP. Those aiming to contest elections to 50 seats of Zilla panchayats in the October 2025 elections and later municipal elections in March 2026 would also make a beeline to the BJP. The politicians in opposition in Goa may have now sensed the direction of the winds blowing in New Delhi. Hereafter, the politics of the anti-BJP opposition in Goa would depend on the extent, magnitude, and durability of their mutual trust, common minimum programme if any, and the index of their unity.
The demographics of more than a million voters in Goa have changed drastically since 2011-12. What applies in Telangana would not be applicable in Goa. Even in Telangana, the stability of the Congress-led new government would be carefully watched and tested by the BJP. For Goa BJP, the CM of Madhya Pradesh Shivraj Singh Chauhan should serve as a role model in his humility, accessibility, down-to-earth, people-centric governance, and readiness to step down for any new person even after scoring a resounding victory.
For those who may soon be knocking on the doors of Goa BJP, the lesson is loud and clear – the party is above the individual, and the RSS is above the party. Once those who join the BJP accept this truth, the huge party ecosystem “takes care” of everyone if they are patient and disciplined. Goans would keenly await some interesting and shocking political developments in the coming weeks.
(Dr Nandkumar M Kamat has a doctorate in microbiology, is a scientist and science writer. Views are personal.)
