BJP is doing an Operation Lotus in advance by weaning away top TMC leaders and re-directing trend winds
Following its more than surprising surge of 18 seats in the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP not only became ambitious about taking Bengal from its archrival and Trinamool Congress (TMC) chief Mamata Banerjee, it proudly said that it would draw more than half of her MLAs to its fold and that the desertions would be voluntary. Now with the BJP’s strategist-in-chief Amit Shah determined to seize the psychological edge over the emotional hold Mamata has on Bengal’s voters, he is crafting his game of optics. Claiming that the BJP would win 200 of the 294 Assembly seats, Shah has modified the template of Operation Lotus, finding the weaknesses of the TMC and breaking that party from within even before elections. His biggest gain happened over the last 24 hours when Didi lost four senior leaders, prize picks all, and he will probably parade them in front of the media to prove his point. There is no doubt that her cadres are none too happy with her protectionism of nephew Abhishek, whom she is grooming to be her successor and for whom, despite claiming that people are her heart, she has the familiar dynastic dream of passing on her legacy to. And because Abhishek Banerjee got in election strategist Prashant Kishor to help the TMC battle the BJP’s organisational might, the latter, too, is being distrusted by the grassroots workers. Of course, none of the defecting Trinamool leaders are clean but they each have a committed constituency and can swing the BJP’s fate, with the latter promising them immunity from probes by investigating agencies. After Suvendu Adhikari, who was the key architect of Mamata’s crusade at Nandigram, and Jitendra Tiwari, TMC MLA Shilbhadra Dutta and minority cell leader Kabirul Islam quit in rapid succession. Of course, the BJP purred over the ghar waapsi of its one-time Asansol observer, Col Diptanshu Chowdhury, who resigned from the post of South Bengal State Transport Corporation and as head of the State’s grievance monitoring cell. Of these, Adhikari, who has a hold in the Haldia port area, can swing results in about 50-odd seats.
Mamata understandably has deeply furrowed brows. Any exit hurts her larger-than-life image and makes the BJP look like a solid challenger. It started with Mukul Roy, whom she sidelined after he was found to be involved in the Narada sting operation case and the Sharada ponzi scam. For all practical purposes Mamata’s eyes and ears, Roy felt slighted for being selectively pushed aside when the going was tough and played a crucial role in turning the BJP’s fortunes in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. At the same time, Shah is keeping up the heat on her with the Home Ministry insisting on recalling three Bengal IPS officers for Central deputation, the idea being to unsettle the cosy equation she has developed with them. Besides, the police machinery comes in handy for any party, which wants a “friendly” supervision of the poll exercise. Mamata, of course, is not giving up and is likely to approach the Supreme Court. The one thing going for her, of course, despite the anti-incumbency, is her personal connect and sincerity of doorstep campaigns. So Shah is focussing on mathematical certainty and working on consolidating the tribal and Dalit vote in the State. This is necessary if the BJP wants to hold its voters from 2019, who had given it a commanding position in 143 of the 294 Assembly seats. With his lunch diplomacy at a tribal home, Shah laid the primary ground rule for the BJP’s roadmap to transfer votes in its favour. Bengal’s Dalit population stands at 1.85 crore, of which 80 lakh are Matuas, who are settlers and have a sizeable influence in Assembly seats in Nadia, North and South 24 Parganas districts. And although they threw in their lot with the BJP last year, they feel short-changed by it on the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and the National Register for Citizens (NRC), none of which helps their refugee status. The biggest concern for the BJP is to have an iconic face as its chief ministerial candidate. Its own core members lack the charisma required and its cadres are anyway upset by the TMC imports taking up positions of importance. Shah, of course, has been trying to toy with the idea of bringing in cricketer Sourav Ganguly but he, too, is no match for Didi’s cross-sectoral and earthy appeal.
